Will Home Prices Drop in 2026?

No major 2026 forecast predicts a national drop in home prices. Estimates run from about -0.3% (the Mortgage Bankers Association) to +4.3% (CoreLogic), clustering around 1 to 2% growth. Prices are falling in some overbuilt Sun Belt metros, but a nationwide decline does not line up with today’s low inventory.

The honest answer, from someone who spent years watching before I bought: probably not, at least not nationally. Here is what the people who forecast this for a living actually project for 2026.

What the forecasters actually say

Eight widely-cited 2026 forecasts land between about -0.3% and +4.3%, and only one of them, the Mortgage Bankers Association, is even slightly negative. The middle of the pack is roughly 1 to 2% growth. That is a slowdown, not a crash.

Where prices are actually falling

Nationally flat hides a real split. Prices are softening in overbuilt Sun Belt metros like Austin, Tampa, and Cape Coral, while a lot of the Midwest and Northeast keep grinding higher. “Will prices drop” is really a question about your metro, which is exactly why we track cities one at a time in the best cities to buy a duplex roundup and on the statistics page.

Why a national crash is unlikely

The single biggest reason is supply. Inventory is still around 17% below pre-pandemic levels, so there are not enough homes to force a broad price collapse. 2008 was a credit and oversupply event, not a template for today, a point I get into in why the housing bubble rarely bursts.

What it means if you are waiting

Waiting for a national crash that forecasters do not expect is not free: you pay rent and current rates the whole time. If the monthly math works in your metro, especially when a tenant covers part of the payment, timing matters less than most people think. Test it in the rent vs. buy calculator or read own for less than you rent.