The short version: there is no single number. A lender sizes the loan from the monthly payment, and two guidelines bracket it: 31% of gross income for the housing payment alone, 43% for all debt together. On $200,000 that is $5,167 to $7,167 a month, and the price that payment buys depends on the rate, the down payment and the county tax bill. Every table below is that one calculation.
How much house $200,000 a year buys at each rate
| Mortgage rate | Price at 31% (3.5% down) | Price at 43% (3.5% down, no other debt) | Price at 31% (20% down) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% | $704,000 | $989,000 | $883,000 |
| 5.5% | $675,000 | $948,000 | $846,000 |
| 6% | $647,000 | $909,000 | $810,000 |
| 6.5% | $621,000 | $872,000 | $777,000 |
| 6.71% (model rate) | $611,000 | $858,000 | $764,000 |
| 7% | $597,000 | $838,000 | $746,000 |
| 7.5% | $574,000 | $806,000 | $717,000 |
Read the band, not the edges: a buyer with a car payment and a student loan lives near the 31% column. A buyer with no other debt can be approved near the 43% column, and FHA’s automated underwriting sometimes goes past it with strong compensating factors. Every rate step of half a point moves the band by roughly $26,000 at the low end.
Where $200,000 goes furthest
The same $200,000 buys a $669,000 house in Salt Lake City, UT and a $514,000 house in McAllen, TX on the front-end guideline, a spread of $155,000 that comes from property tax and home insurance alone. The income did not change; the carrying cost did.
| Metro | Effective tax rate | Price $200,000 supports at 31% |
|---|---|---|
| Salt Lake City, UT | 0.54% | $669,000 |
| Washington, DC | 0.78% | $660,000 |
| Las Vegas, NV | 0.79% | $657,000 |
| Jacksonville, FL | 1.24% | $516,000 |
| Tampa, FL | 1.24% | $516,000 |
| McAllen, TX | 1.87% | $514,000 |
Where $200,000 buys a duplex
The part most buyers miss: on a two-to-four-unit home the lender counts 75% of the other unit’s rent as your income, which raises the price $200,000 qualifies for. In Rochester, NY that credit lifts the front-end price from $557,000 to $656,000, against a duplex entry price of $160,000. In 73 of the 83 metros in the dataset a $200,000 income clears the duplex entry price this way.
| Metro | Duplex entry price | 1BR rent (market) | Price at 31%, no rent | Price at 31%, with rent credit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rochester, NY | $160,000 | $1,202 | $557,000 | $656,000 |
| Syracuse, NY | $198,000 | $1,300 | $548,000 | $654,000 |
| Albany, NY | $269,900 | $1,340 | $565,000 | $678,000 |
| Cleveland, OH | $169,997 | $1,154 | $555,000 | $651,000 |
| Youngstown, OH | $127,500 | $790 | $611,000 | $682,000 |
| Pittsburgh, PA | $249,000 | $1,321 | $555,000 | $665,000 |
| Buffalo, NY | $237,900 | $1,172 | $597,000 | $693,050 |
| Chicago, IL | $449,000 | $2,012 | $569,000 | $693,050 |
The down payment on what $200,000 buys
Where these numbers come from
- Mortgage rate: 30-year fixed, Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, week of September 3, 2026: 6.71% is the model rate used throughout; the tables re-run the same calculation at each rate.
- Qualifying ratios: FHA 31% front-end and 43% back-end, HUD Handbook 4000.1. Loan terms: FHA 3.5% minimum down payment, 1.75% upfront and 0.55% annual mortgage insurance premium, same handbook. Rental income credited at 75%, the lender convention for two-to-four-unit homes.
- Property taxes: county effective rates for 80 metros. Insurance: state average premiums with a landlord uplift, scaled to price by the square root of the price ratio. The national row is the median of those metros, not a US average.
- FHA loan limits: HUD CHUMS CY2026 forward limits by county, one-unit and two-unit columns.
- Duplex entry prices and rents: the Foothold dataset, active two-to-four-unit listings screened Jun-Aug 2026; the one-bedroom rent is the average of Zumper and Apartment List metro asking rents (May to July 2026), which the model scales per ZIP by HUD FY2026 Small Area Fair Market Rents.
- Area median income and the 80% limit: HUD FY2026 Income Limits (Section 8), huduser.gov.
- All of it, as one file: the open data page (CC BY 4.0).
Prices are rounded to the nearest thousand and are estimates for comparison, not a pre-approval. Your lender prices your rate, your county sets your tax bill, and your credit file sets your ratios. Verify before you offer.
Questions people ask about buying on $200,000 a year
Can I afford a $625,000 house on $200,000 a year?
A $625,000 house sits inside the $611,000 to $858,000 band a $200,000 income supports at 6.71% with 3.5% down. It is over the 31% front-end line, so it depends on carrying little other debt.
What monthly payment can I afford on $200,000 a year?
The monthly payment $200,000 a year supports is $5,167 at FHA’s 31% front-end guideline and $7,167 at the 43% back-end guideline with no other debt. Lenders qualify you on that payment, tax and insurance included, and the price follows from the rate and the down payment.
How much house can I buy on $200,000 with 20% down?
$200,000 a year supports about $764,000 at the 31% guideline with 20% down, against $611,000 with 3.5% down, because the loan is smaller and carries no mortgage insurance. The trade is the cash: 20% of $764,000 is $152,800 up front against $21,385 for the FHA minimum.
Does buying a duplex change what $200,000 can afford?
Buying a duplex raises the price $200,000 qualifies for because the lender credits 75% of the second unit’s rent. In Rochester, NY, a $1,202 one-bedroom rent lifts the front-end price from $557,000 to $656,000, above the $160,000 duplex entry price there. The building has to be one you live in.
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